Manifold

Manifold is a prediction market platform. Bruin supports Manifold as a public read-only source for Ingestr assets, allowing you to ingest market, bet, comment, group, user, portfolio, transaction, league, and boost history data into your data warehouse.

No API key is required for the supported Manifold tables.

Configuration

Step 1: Add a connection to .bruin.yml file

Add a manifold connection to the connections section of your .bruin.yml file:

connections:
  manifold:
    - name: "manifold"

Manifold supports optional URI filters. Add them with query_params when a table needs a single value:

connections:
  manifold:
    - name: "manifold-bitcoin-search"
      query_params:
        term: "bitcoin"
        sort: "newest"

    - name: "manifold-market"
      query_params:
        market_id: "YOUR_MARKET_ID"

For repeated URI parameters, such as the ids parameter used by market_probabilities, use query_param_lists:

connections:
  manifold:
    - name: "manifold-probabilities"
      query_param_lists:
        ids:
          - "MARKET_ID_1"
          - "MARKET_ID_2"

The keys in query_params and query_param_lists are passed through to ingestr as Manifold URI query parameters. Use the exact parameter name from the table list below, including camelCase names such as userId, contractSlug, and groupId.

Step 2: Create an asset file for data ingestion

To ingest data from Manifold, create an asset configuration file such as assets/manifold.asset.yml:

name: raw.manifold_markets
type: ingestr
connection: duckdb-default

parameters:
  source_connection: manifold
  source_table: "markets"

  destination: duckdb

• name: The name of the asset.
• type: Set this to ingestr.
• connection: The destination connection where the data will be stored.
• source_connection: The name of the Manifold connection defined in .bruin.yml.
• source_table: The Manifold table to ingest.
• destination: The destination platform.

For filtered tables, reference the connection that carries the relevant Manifold URI parameters:

name: raw.manifold_bitcoin_search
type: ingestr
connection: duckdb-default

parameters:
  source_connection: manifold-bitcoin-search
  source_table: "search_markets"

  destination: duckdb

Available Source Tables

Table	Required URI params	Optional URI params	PK	Inc Key	Inc Strategy	Details
markets	-	sort, order, userId, groupId	id	createdTime	merge	Public market list.
search_markets	-	term, sort, filter, creatorId, contractType, topicSlug, minLiquidity, maxLiquidity	id	createdTime	merge	Search and filter markets. Supports interval end as beforeTime.
market_by_id	market_id	-	id	-	replace	Full market by id.
market_by_slug	contract_slug	-	id	-	replace	Full market by slug.
market_probability	market_id	-	-	-	replace	Current probability for one market. Multiple choice market details are returned in raw.
market_probabilities	ids	-	-	-	replace	Current probabilities for up to 100 market ids. Repeat ids with query_param_lists.
market_positions	market_id	order, top, bottom, userId, answerId	-	-	replace	Position information for one market.
bets	-	userId, username, contractId, contractSlug, kinds, order	id	createdTime	merge	Public bets. Supports interval pushdown.
comments	-	contractId, contractSlug, userId, order	id	createdTime	merge	Public comments.
groups	-	availableToUserId	id	createdTime	merge	Public groups/topics. Supports interval end as beforeTime.
group_by_slug	group_slug	-	-	-	replace	One group by slug.
group_by_id	group_id	-	-	-	replace	One group by id.
users	-	-	id	-	replace	Public users.
user_by_username	username	-	id	-	replace	Public user by username.
user_by_id	user_id	-	id	-	replace	Public user by id.
user_portfolio	userId	-	-	-	replace	Current public portfolio metrics for a user.
user_portfolio_history	userId, period	-	timestamp	timestamp	merge	Historical portfolio metrics. period is daily, weekly, monthly, or allTime.
user_contract_metrics	userId	order, perAnswer	-	-	replace	User contract metrics with market contracts.
transactions	-	token, toId, fromId, category	id	createdTime	merge	Public transactions. Supports interval pushdown.
leagues	-	userId, season, cohort	-	-	replace	Public league standings.
boost_history	-	contractId, postId, userId, includePending	id	createdTime	merge	Contract and post boost history.

Interval Behavior

Manifold intervals are creation-time filters for the tables that support them. bets and transactions pass both interval start and interval end to the Manifold API. search_markets and groups pass only interval end as beforeTime. Other tables do not have a documented API-side interval filter.

Using incremental intervals for market discovery can miss markets that were created outside the interval but updated inside it. The Manifold API exposes update timestamps, but the documented ingestr source does not provide updated-time start and end filters.

Step 3: Run asset to ingest data

bruin run assets/manifold.asset.yml

As a result of this command, Bruin will ingest data from the selected Manifold table into your destination database.